MSFT
Stock TokenMicrosoft · a token designed to track the underlying security
Executable premium
No validated two-sided executable quote right now. A Chainlink reference value is never shown here as a premium.
Reference change
Current Chainlink token reference vs the prior reference reading. This is a feed change, not a tradable market price.
Chainlink token reference · 24d ago· staleHistorical opening moves of the underlying security
These statistics use the traditional security's historical opens and closes. They do not represent historical Robinhood Chain liquidity or token premiums.
Overnight opening moves
994 observationsAcross 994 historical overnight sessions, MSFT opened more than 3% away from its previous close 2% of the time.
Distribution of 994 historical opening moves of the underlying security
Weekend opening moves
260 observationsAcross 260 historical weekends, MSFT opened more than 3% away from its previous close 2% of the time.
Distribution of 260 historical opening moves of the underlying security
Collateral context · Arrow Finance
unaffiliated · informationalMSFT is listed as accepted collateral on Arrow Finance, an overcollateralized lending protocol on Robinhood Chain where borrowers lock collateral and mint its aUSD stablecoin. Their published parameters put MSFT in Tier 1: a maximum 55% loan-to-value with a 65% liquidation threshold.
Liquidation is not a simple loan-to-value trip. Their model is a health factor — (collateral × 65%) ÷ debt — and a position becomes liquidatable below 1. A Stability Pool then burns aUSD and takes the collateral at a discount to its oracle price, so a liquidated borrower gives up more value than the debt repaid. For someone who draws the full 55% LTV, that point arrives after roughly a 15.4% drop in MSFT's collateral value. Borrowing less leaves more headroom.
Across 260 weekend observations on record for MSFT's underlying security, an opening move down of 15.4% or more occurred 0 times. The largest weekend drop in the sample was −4.7%.
Counts downward moves only — an upward gap doesn't reduce collateral value. Sample 2021-08-16 → 2026-08-03; median absolute weekend move 0.5%, 95th percentile 1.7%.
No weekend gap in this sample would have liquidated a max-LTV MSFT borrower on its own. That is a description of 260 past weekends, not a guarantee: it assumes the full 55% draw with no prior drawdown and no accrued interest, and a position already underwater before the weekend needs a far smaller gap to be liquidated.
Why the weekend matters: Arrow Finance's docs state that outside trading hours their oracle reports the last confirmed close, and that market-hours handling is planned but not yet active. Collateral is therefore priced at a stale close all weekend and revalues when the underlying market reopens — so a weekend gap arrives as a single jump at the open, with no opportunity to add collateral or repay while markets are closed.
Informational only — Arrow is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to Arrow Finance, and this is not advice or a recommendation to borrow. Arrow does not execute trades or connect wallets. Their parameters and mechanics are as published at arrowfinance.io/docs, verified 2026-07-16, and can change at any time — check their docs before acting. The statistics describe historical opening moves of the underlying security, not Robinhood Chain token liquidity or premiums, and imply no forecast.
How to read this
The two live readings are kept strictly separate. The executable premium only appears when a validated two-sided market quote exists; otherwise it shows —. The reference change is the Chainlink token reference against its own prior reading and is never presented as a market price. The historical statistics below describe how far MSFT's underlying security has opened from its previous official close over five years — separately for weeknights and weekends. They are descriptions of the traditional security's past, not Robinhood Chain token premiums or liquidity, and imply no forecast or advice.
Hypothetical protection simulator — MSFT
A hypothetical contract priced purely from MSFT's historical weekend opening moves: it would pay your notional if the underlying security opened more than your strike away from its previous close. No money, no positions, no settlement — a historical pricing illustration only.
Role
Window
Strike (|gap| exceeds)
Notional (payout if triggered)
You pay premium
$11.06
for $500 of weekend protection at a 3% strike
Historical trigger rate: 1.9%
5 of 260 weekends exceeded 3%
If the gap exceeds 3% at the next open
You receive $500.00 (net +$488.94 after premium). If it doesn't, you lose the $11.06 premium.
Over the last five years, this weekend contract would have paid out 5 times across 260 weekends.
Repeating it every weekend on $500, a buyer would have ended −$375.00 — before the 15% margin the other side collects.
Simulated — no real positions and no money. Premiums are priced off the empirical frequency of past gaps, which does not predict future gaps. This is an informational illustration of how gap risk would be priced, not an offer, product, or advice. Arrow takes no value and settles nothing.